Bitcoin Halving Cycles
Many Know About Them - But Have You Actually Seen Them For Yourself?
What you are looking at here is a very simple chart — I’ve charted each halving date & have identified four cycles that take place.
Initial Halving Date / Mark-up phase / Markdown phase / Bridge.
With each halving date, it usually takes around 120+ days to really get The Mark-up Phase going. You will see this period of time identified as a light green bar running vertically down the chart & this is the beginning of our first cycle.
Each cycle has its own respective time frame, but not an exact time duration. We have our initial Halving at 120+ days. As well as our Mark-up Phase & Mark Down Phase averaging around 400+ days & The Bridge lasting a little longer at 450+ days.
Knowing the 4-year cycle is one thing, but actually visualizing the dates on a chart & making tangible entrances/exits are what have been allowing me to manage risk appropriately & take advantage of selling/buying opportunities. Of course, I am using $BTC as a proxy for the entire digital asset market & others may find that looking at the Total Market Cap is better for understanding macro movements. While this may be the case, we cannot deny the catalyst that is The Halving. It is what propels us to all-time highs, & is what drives the scarcity aspect of this immutable cryptographic decentralized ledger.
If you find yourself here, know you've been in a bear market for at least 7 months now. IF anyone was asking for my analysis — I assume we go sideways or bleed more until the end of our current bear cycle (November 22'). That’s about another 6 months & then we hit The Bridge, which again usually lasts around 400+ days. We are typically bullish at the beginning of this phase & range under ATH throughout the rest of the cycle, so I could imagine a little rally here & there but mostly sideways or slow grind to previous highs.
In the past two bear markets, we’ve had around an 80% fall from ATH.
An 80% fall from the current All-Time-High is roughly around $14,000.
Bitcoin is currently trading @ $31,277 & although we have caught a local bottom here ($29,646), I believe there are too many macro events going on to call a bottom now. With The Fed not showing any signs of letting up, looming war, & food shortages- it is my opinion The Fed will keep its hawkish stance until something breaks or until they are pressured by Congress to alleviate the bleeding they will inevitably cause to financial markets.
Thank you for your time & if you care to follow my analysis a little more closely, I spend far too much of my time on the Icon Discord server. (shameless shill) It is easily my favorite interoperability protocol. I’ve made great friends with the team & I am a community admin over there for the price channel. If Discord isn't your jam, I am on Twitter, Facebook, & Instagram. I will leave all the appropriate channels below & again thank you for your time. I know you value it, so hopefully, I was able to provide value in my analysis. Till next time, cheers!